Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra

The Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is an interesting biodiversity hotspot, with a significant proportion of endemic species that have evolved to survive in arid subtropical environment, inscribed as World Heritage Site by UNESCO. terrestrial ecosystems face several threats, including climate change, overgrazing and soil degradation. Island has four the genus Commiphora (Burseraceae). Little known about their local distribution ecology, yet these trees could be useful indicator species. Our study focuses on niche characterisation how change may affect them. aim improve insights into habitats provide essential basis for future management plans ecological restoration. We compared current forecasted potential under CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scenario, allowing us define target conservation areas assess extinction risks. To achieve this, we collected data field throughout Island, covering ranges species, applied three models (GAM, MaxEnt, RandomForest) using bioclimatic, topographic variables. Forecasts scenario were made bioclimatic variables from CMCC-CESM2 model two different socioeconomic pathways. Socotran mainly correlated clay content winter precipitation, while C. socotrana affected seasonal precipitation temperature. Under scenarios, ornifolia predicted remain stable or increase, parvifolia planifrons are undergo strong reduction suitable upward shift mountains. results highlight it conserve unique preserve which wide range ecosystem services. Updates risk assessment fundamental understand priorities strategize actions ensure persistence myrrh other endangered tree taxa island.